Every week, we analyze the market structure on ES and NQ to identify the key liquidity levels where institutional activity is likely to occur. These levels inform our bias and help us anticipate where VLM signals are most likely to produce high-probability setups.
ES (S&P 500 Futures)
The S&P has been in a steady uptrend, but we're approaching some significant overhead resistance. Here's what we're watching:
ES Key Levels
ES Bias
Neutral to bullish above 5950. The 6000 psychological level has been acting as a magnet, and we expect continued tests of this level. A clean break and hold above 6025 opens the path to 6050.
On the downside, 5950 is the first line of defense. A sweep of this level followed by a VLM long signal would be an ideal setup. Below 5900, the structure shifts bearish and we'd look for short setups into 5825.
NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures)
Nasdaq continues to show relative strength, leading ES higher. Tech earnings have been supportive, and the index is holding well above its moving averages.
NQ Key Levels
NQ Bias
Bullish above 20800. NQ is trading in price discovery mode near highs, which means traditional support/resistance is less reliable. Focus on VLM signals and volume-based levels.
A sweep of 20800 would be the first level where we'd look for long entries. Below 20500, caution is warranted as that would break the current bullish structure.
Correlation Watch
ES/NQ correlation remains high at 0.92. When NQ shows relative weakness (NQ down more than ES), it often signals risk-off sentiment building. Watch for divergences as potential early warning signs.
The Week Ahead
With no major Fed speakers and light economic data, this week should be more technically driven. Focus on the key levels above and wait for VLM confirmation at these zones. The best setups will come from liquidity sweeps of the support levels followed by reversal signals.
How to Use These Levels
These levels aren't meant to be traded blindly. Here's how to incorporate them:
- Mark them on your chart: Draw horizontal lines at each level
- Watch for reactions: See how price behaves when approaching these zones
- Wait for VLM signals: Enter only when VLM confirms at or near these levels
- Adjust for context: If price sweeps a level and VLM signals, that's your setup
Remember: levels are zones, not exact prices. Give yourself some buffer room when watching for reactions.